The stretch between Christmas and late January presents a prime opportunity for CPG brands to gain share as competitors scale back. Data from Kroger Precision Marketing shows strong momentum in restock-driven categories such as beverages, snacks, and fresh foods, alongside heightened openness to trial as shoppers reset their routines for the year ahead. Christine Foster, SVP of Commercial Strategy & Operations at Kroger Precision Marketing powered by 84.51°, explains why the post-holiday period can be especially advantageous for brands ready to lean in.

How does KPM define the “fifth quarter,” and why has it become an important window for brands and retailers?

December 26 to mid-January is a window of opportunity for brands that we call the “fifth quarter.” People are immediately back to shopping after Christmas day. They’re restocking the kitchen, making returns, and spending their new gift cards.

It can be hard for mid-sized brands to compete for attention in the weeks ahead of Christmas. The big brands are spending heavily. But after the holidays, there’s an opportunity for mid-sized brands to win shoppers.  

Which categories see the greatest opportunity during the fifth quarter—and which face the biggest challenges?

Immediately after Christmas, people are re-stocking with all of the pantry staples and fresh foods. After New Year’s Day it becomes more about re-setting new routines. You also have households buying snacks and beverages for bowl games and post-season football. Overall, we see shopper spending 2.2x higher in January in categories like Health Foods, Fresh Foods, Snacks, Beverages, Grocery Staples, and Household Essentials.

What new behavioral signals does KPM look for in January that differ from traditional holiday shopping signals?

People are obviously looking for value. In our recent surveys, 58% of shoppers say deals directly motivate their purchases in the weeks following Christmas day. But it is also a time to capture new households. So, we help brands keep an eye on brand switching too.

Do you see identifiable “holiday fatigue” in shopper data, and how should brands address it?

Strangely, it isn’t shoppers that are fatigued, it is the marketing budgets. Advertising and promotional budgets are heavily weighted on pre-holiday periods. But shoppers are still very active post-holidays. Trips to the store are 1.6 times higher in January than during an average week of the year.