Cynopsis Media Special:

2014 Syndication Marketplace

01.22.14

Syndication is television at its most steady and reliable: When a Judge Judy clicks, it can stay at the top of its class for 900 weeks. And as studies show, syndicated programming brings a loyal audience that watches it live almost 100 percent of the time. “Stability is a hallmark,” says David Campanelli, Director of National Television for Horizon Media, whose clients include Capital One and Weight Watchers, “It’s not necessarily sexy, but it is a benefit for advertisers.”

 A CYNOPSIS MESSAGE FROM NATPE

Still, there is uncertainty. Experts assure that the overall marketplace is healthy, but ad sales slipped in the first three quarters of last year. Kantar Media reports that year-to-year Q1-Q3 totals dipped nearly 1%, from $3.85B in 2012 to $3.81B in 2013 (Q4 numbers are not yet available). This comes after a 9% growth from 2011 that led to a nearly $5.1B ad spend in 2012.

The truth is, some long-held beliefs are being challenged in the marketplace: Celebrity names like Katie Couric or Jeff Probst can’t necessarily sustain a first-run outing, while a popular sitcom isn’t guaranteed to become the next Seinfeld in off-net programming during its first year, even if its numbers are strong.

Taking note of those challenges, participants head into this year’s NATPE with a frission of change in the air, even in this stable environment. The attendance of national and international sellers at NATPE is pacing ahead of last year (last count: 300 exhibitors, including 58 newcomers), as there’s clearly a need for industry heads to network, set up new original slates and preview their upcoming off-market-network sitcoms.

NATPE is also looking to the future, opening its arms to non-traditional platforms, social media (with Twitter executives showcased at the keynote session) and content providers; new buyers like Netflix and Amazon are hungry for content, says president and CEO Rod Perth, with digital outlets like Machinima upping their presence.

“Two years ago there was this thing called Netflix, and mostly people were dismissive because it was just a digital business,” says Perth. “We’re not dismissive any more. The fact is, if you are just protective of the status quo – you’re dead.”

Here’s a look at what attendees can expect from market leaders at NATPE:

Sony Pictures Television’s successful fall 2013 launch of Queen Latifah, which has already been upped for a second season and cleared in 97 percent of the country, was no surprise to John Weiser, president, U.S. distribution, who says, “Queen Latifah is a highly relatable likeable personality that’s also a Rolls Royce brand.” Sony rejiggered the popular The Dr. Oz Show after audience feedback indicated they were overwhelmed with information; instead, many of the show’s facts are funneled to the website, which has boosted traffic. Last year Community launched in off-net, while new cycles of Seinfeld and King of Queens sold, and the company plans to start discussions at NATPE on a raft of shows coming down the pipeline, including The Blacklist, The Michael J. Fox Show and The Goldbergs. To Weiser, it’s all about having the right shows: “You don’t watch devices or platforms, you watch content. As all of these new platforms and technology blossom, content is still king.”

With a long-running successful grab bag that includes Judge Judy, Wheel of Fortune and Dr. Phil, CBS Television Distribution is currently testing new daytime talker Serch on eight Tribune stations, with an eye to a wider, official launch later in 2014 after an introduction at NATPE. “We knew it would be a quick turnaround, and we’re prepared for it,” says Hilary Estey McLoughlin, president, creative affairs. The Arsenio Hall Show remains unique as a late-night syndicated program, and its initial high ratings have settled back to earth, but remains a “strong contender” says Horizon’s Campanelli. “If that sticks and does well there will probably be copycats on that.” In addition, CBS launched The Test last September and is looking to expand the Entertainment Tonight brand with specials and content for other networks. The fifth-year increasing success story of The Wendy Williams Show, says McLoughlin, is evidence of a trend toward multi-cultural talent and programming in daytime. “It’s a trend that should continue in major markets, where audiences have a diversity that gives traction to these multi-cultural shows,” she notes.

Warner Bros. Domestic Television Distribution is also focused on the “multi-cultural” experience, with its successfully test-run of The Real, which launches in September in national syndication and has a second window lined up on BET. President Ken Werner said the show serves an “underserved audience that few people were programming to; a multi-cultural, forward-leaning, youthful psychographc that wanted a talk show that spoke to them.” Real benefitted from early testing, but ratings were less kind to Bethenny, which despite a summer 2012 test run and popular host, has not yet been confirmed to return for a second go-around (the show earned a .6 rating among W18-49 the week of December 30). Otherwise, new WB offerings include TMZ Live, which is a cash-only show and not looking for national full clearance, and the off-net launch of Mike & Molly. Since WB already has gangbusters off-net success with other Chuck Lorre creations (Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men) Werner expects good things. They’ve already sold 2 Broke Girls and are excited about launching Mom in 2017. “Creating great content is what Warner Bros. does; it’s in our DNA,” says Werner. “In success, we take that content, partner with our stations and create long-term franchises.”

Steve Harvey continues to do well for NBCUniversal Domestic Television Distribution, and is a real “phenomenon,” according to TV research veteran Ted Faraone, who adds that Harvey is one of the reasons Ellen (distributed by Warner Bros.) is doing so well after 10 years, since the two are paired in the top 5 markets. But NBC’s biggest news this year is the debut of The Meredith Vieira Show, coming in the fall, which has been sold in over 90% of the country, according to Ed Swindler, NBCUniversal Domestic Television Distribution and NBC Broadcast Operations president. “We have all the right elements coming together on that show,’ he says, and notes that since it will shoot at 30 Rock in New York City, the opportunities for synergy with Today, Tonight and Late Night will be endless; plus, Vieira will again team up with Today’s Matt Lauer at the Olympics this year. The major difference between Vieira and Katie Couric  both newswomen who went softer for their big talk show launches is, says Swindler, that Vieira has proven daytime relatability thanks to her experience with The View and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?. “Everything else is secondary to making a great show,” he says.

The loss of Katie leaves a hole for Disney-ABC, and many stations may simply go back to using local programming, suggests Faraone, without a major show to fill the gap (at the moment, there doesn’t seem to be a likely replacement set for announcement at NATPE). The company returns with its first-run Live with Kelly and Michael, Millionaire and On the Red Carpet, and a spokesperson says they plan to bring Cougar Town and Scandal to NATPE as new off-net offerings. But the lack of new syndication programming doesn’t mean Disney-ABC is ignoring the market; as Campanelli explains, they’ve combined their syndication and daytime sales, and thanks to shows like The View and The Chew, they’ve been able to duplicate what looks like a syndicated show in-house. “Viewers don’t know the difference between a syndicated show and a network show,” he says. “And the more networks program themselves, the less real estate there is for syndicators.”

MGM’s president of domestic TV John Bryan is pleased at the 92% clearance on courtroom series Paternity Court, the company’s “first show on the air in nine years,’ he says. The company also syndicates Right This Minute, the first TV broadcast strip reporting on viral videos, which cleared in 87% of the country, along with the trivia game show Let’s Ask America. “We’re looking forward to walking into the convention for the first time with three strips,” says Bryan, who adds that MGM’s real strength comes from its digital media network partnership with Tribune Broadcasting, and that they will have their movie packages at conventions. “They’re still some of the highest-rated things we see on stations, these movies,” he notes.

 In December, Debmar-Mercury announced they had cleared the Craig Ferguson-hosted Celebrity Name Game (co-produced with FremantleMedia North America) to over 80 percent of U.S. stations; a spokesperson indicated that it will have sold in “virtually every market” prior to the fall 2014 launch. Meanwhile, Anger Management’s 10/90 deal means the show will enter off-net syndication in September, and a new 10/90 deal with Kevin James for an untitled is in the works. Debmar (owned by Lionsgate) also has plans for an untitled sitcom with Martin Lawrence and Kelsey Grammer (premiere 2014/syndication fall 2017) and George Lopez (Saint George premieres in Sept./syndicates in 2016). Meanwhile, longtime shows The Wendy Williams Show and Family Feud showed fresh life and solid ratings (the latter in part buoyed by to the success of Steve Harvey).

Twentieth Television’s off-net run of Modern Family, which kicked off in 2013, was a “substantial hit,” says Paul Franklin, EVP and general sales manager, broadcast sales. By the end of last year it was the No. 2 program in all of syndication among 18-49ers, right behind Big Bang Theory, and was No. 1 in the 18-34 demo. Cops Reloaded brought back the classic early reality TV show in March for CMT, though, “In general, we’re in the off-network TV business,” he says. “I don’t think anybody has more sitcoms, and we have more coming.” They include Last Man Standing and New Girl, both of which will be teased at NATPE, to get them ready for the sales process. “If you adapt and change in this environment, you can have great success,” he says.

The wild card for NATPE, however, remains less in how it will handle current syndication issues than how it will find ways to help new platforms and new content creators to do business. Though most big syndicators don’t yet have deals with digital creators/platforms like Machinima, there is some cross-pollenization at work. “Digital video opportunities offer more in targeting capabilities, and the things they can do in terms of custom content development, things we’re not seeing in syndication players,” says MediaVest EVP, managing director Scott Lee, whose clients include P&G and Walmart. A company like Machinima, which will have a low-level presence at NATPE this year, has over 100 million YouTube subscribers over its eight owned and operated web channels; the company creates and distributes its own content, but looks for ways to help promote other TV shows, as it did with Starz, which gave a first episode window of its new series Black Sails to Machinima to air to its “fanboy” audience. ‘We have a highly-engaged audience,’ says Allen DeBevoise, CEO and co-founder. ‘So if you’re doing a Walking Dead or Black Sails or action, horror, sci-fi, thriller or irreverent animation, we’re a great place to incubate that content and create brand awareness.”

Which goes back to Perth’s assertion that looking to the future is the path to success. “Most of us do not watch television in linear ways any longer,” he says. “It’s the obligation, whether you’re at a local station or studio or production company, to be students of this business  and be nimble.”

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