By Kristen Whitmore, VP of Insights, Lotame
Holiday shopping used to be predictable. This year, Gen Z, millennials, and a growing group of “new frugals” are shifting long-held behaviors, and the gap between what shoppers say and what they actually do has become impossible to ignore.
Marketers continue to hear one dominant message: consumers expect to cut back. Yet the behavioral data tells a far more nuanced story. Growth is still there; it simply requires looking beyond stated intent.
Stated intent isn’t the truth — behavior is.
Millennials spent much of the past year talking about budgeting and buying less. At the same time, their planned holiday spending has increased 30% year-over-year, reaching an average of $896, the highest of any generation. This contrast underscores the difference between sentiment and action. What people express often reflects emotion, while their actual behavior reveals opportunity.
Survey results suggest shoppers are cautious. Behavioral data shows something very different. Holiday shoppers are researching women’s fashion, home design, and green vehicles at nearly twice the rate as the general population. When brands rely only on what people say, they miss the signals that indicate where real demand is emerging.
AI is quietly reshaping the shopping journey.
Younger shoppers are beginning their search process in new ways. Among those using AI, 37% of millennials and 93% of Gen Z turn to tools like ChatGPT and Copilot for ideas, travel planning, and virtual try-ons. These interactions are not passive impressions; they are early decision points that shape preferences long before a traditional ad appears.
AI is becoming a starting place for discovery rather than a novelty or trend. Brands that are not visible at these early moments risk missing the beginning of the consumer journey.
Tariffs redefined how shoppers evaluate value.
Although many consumers say they plan to save, their behavior reflects a shift toward more intentional research. Three in five shoppers report that tariffs are making holiday planning more difficult, leading younger generations to look more closely at product origins and overall value.
This shift is creating new behavioral segments, including value-focused researchers, category-specific deal seekers, and luxury bargain-hunters such as, people who shop on sites like Postmark in search of higher quality items at more accessible prices.
These are opportunities to create custom audiences that blend demographics with behavior and intent based on how people shop.
The omnichannel journey is now the default.
This season puts an end to any debates about online versus in-store shopping. Millennials, the most influential holiday spending cohort, plan to shop 92% online and 91% in-store, showing near-identical intent across both channels. Gen Z and Gen X mirror this behavior, with each group expecting to spend equal amounts of time shopping online and in stores.
The experience is no longer about choosing one channel over another, but about how seamlessly shoppers move between them. The scroll-to-tap-to-pickup cycle is now standard, and brands need behavioral insight to understand when, why, and how these transitions happen.
Growth comes from connecting signals, not guessing.
Holiday 2025 reinforces a core truth: intent only becomes powerful when paired with observed behavior. When marketers connect what people say with what they actually do—rising budgets, AI-driven discovery, tariff-related research, and shifting category interest—four clear patterns emerge:
- Demand is rising in categories shoppers claim they will cut back, including women’s fashion, home design, and travel research.
- Early discovery is happening through AI rather than traditional search, especially among millennials and Gen Z using tools like ChatGPT and Copilot.
- Value assessment is being shaped by policy pressures, with tariffs pushing younger shoppers to scrutinize product origins and evaluate value more carefully.
- The shopping journey is fully blended, requiring brands to understand the scroll-to-tap-to-pickup handoff rather than relying on single-channel strategies.
These are the areas where meaningful growth will surface this season.
The Bottom Line:
Sentiment is noise. Behavior is strategy. This year, growth belongs to the brands reading the signals in real time and acting on them fast. Shoppers say, “cut back,” but their behavior tells a different story, those who follow the truth, not the talk, will win the season.
